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By Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist 30 August 2011 15:03 GMT Yesterday's LE of 14440 was triggered.

The EURUSD continues to probe the highs of the last several months, giving scope to a breakout towards the June and May highs (14694 and 14942). Structurally, I’ve maintained that the consolidation since the May high is just that – consolidation. Favor a break higher as long as price is above 14256. The final subdivisions of a triangle may be unfolding now.

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30 August 2011 15:03 GMT

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The USDJPY rally from its record low (just below 7600) is left as a 3 wave rally which is corrective and leaves price vulnerable to new lows. Reinforcing the bearish structure of the 3 wave rally is the sharp decline from yesterday’s high (impulsive). Short term resistance extends to 7705/25. If the USDJPY breaks down, the next level of interest on the downside would be the 161.8% extension of the decline from 7769, at 7507.

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I remain of the persuasion that the AUDUSD is headed lower. In fact, the rally from 9620 fits as a 4th wave within the decline from 10764. A top and reversal is expected at / close to current price (9970). Bearish objectives are the November 2010 low at 9534 and the 2009-2010 double top at 9400.

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I wrote yesterday that “near term weakness may extend to the August pivot at 10110 but there is now the possibility of consolidation in wave iv back into 10300-10400. Such a rally would present the next bearish opportunity.” Elliott channel resistance intersects with former resistance at 10380 today, which is an area I like selling into if reached. Shorts are favored against the Monday high (10440).

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By Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist 07 October 2011 14:49 GMT “The AUDUSD has reversed from the long cited bearish target of 9400 and the channel that defines the trend from the July top. To review, 9400 is the 2009-2010 double top (2009 was slightly above 9400 and 2010 was slightly below). Short term structure is constructive, with the rally from the low unfolding in 5 waves. I favor buying dips. 9600 and 9540 are supports. Upside levels of interest are 9810, 9840, and 9880.” Price has already reached 9880! Resistance at this former pivot is reinforced by a short term channel. A reaction lower encounters support at 9745 and 9670.

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07 October 2011 14:49 GMT

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The sharp advance may be the beginning of the end of the wave 4 correction that has been unfolding since August. Currently testing Elliott channel resistance, 7784 is also resistance. As long as price is below 7956, I favor a top, reversal and decline to all time lows in order to complete 5 waves down from April. Yesterday’s rally is nearly entirely retraced and a break to a new low would shift focus to 7403 (width of consolidation subtracted from breakout level of 7594).

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It is time to shift to neutral at least in the interim (this goes for 'risk' in general).

The AUDUSD has reached the long cited bearish target of 9400 and the channel that defines the trend from the July top. To review, 9400 is the 2009-2010 double top (2009 was slightly above 9400 and 2010 was slightly below). One would expect a bounce at minimum to materialize from here. Resistance is 9540 and 9590. These are levels that I may turn bearish at again.

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By Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist 30 September 2011 15:42 GMT I'll wait until October to put on new positions. The EURUSD best exemplifies my current thoughts -

“It’s too early to say that a low is in place and it is best to wait until October (new month, new point of reference with respect to time) before taking a strong stand but there are signs that a EURUSD bullish base is forming. Price has broken above short term trendlines and sentiment is extreme (recent Economist cover, COT positioning, etc.)” The EURUSD is making a run at its lows and time will tell if it holds. If broken, then weakness could extend to the mid January pivot at 13250. Resistance is 13490-13510. Early October action will offer an opening range to trade from (best way to play reversals and extensions in my opinion).

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30 September 2011 15:42 GMT

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I wrote yesterday that “keep in mind that with 5 waves possibly nearing completion from 10763, the probability increases with each tick lower that a corrective advance will get underway towards 10400.” Objectives at 10110 and 10030 were not met and the rally from the low is constructive. Expectations over the next several days are for a correction of the decline from 10763 to unfold. Resistance is 10390 and 10450-10525 (50%-61.8% Fibonacci).

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The AUDUSD continues to slide and focus is on several big levels, including the November 2010 low at 9537 and the 2009-2010 double top at 9400. The channel that defines the trend since the July top is of particular interest and crosses 9455 today (decreases about 10 pips per day). As long as price is below last night's high of 9700, the downside is favored short term. Exceeding that level would shift focus to 9770.

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The AUDUSD is at a crossroads as price is in the middle of its recent range. Having bounced from the mid August pivot low, lightening up on bearish positions is suggested. A more bearish outcome is possible as long as price is below 10662. One alternate possibility is presented above in which the decline from 10762 is wave x. The implications would be for a move above 10762.

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By Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist 06 September 2011 15:02 GMT “An AUDUSD high may be in place as price has declined beneath the short term Elliott channel. More importantly, the decline from 10764 is impulsive (5 waves). Near term resistance is 10625. The implications from the above count are bearish as the next AUDUSD bear leg would result in a break below 9928.” Last night’s spike reversed right at the gap from Sunday night and 50% retracement of the decline from 10762. Look lower towards 10417 and 10315 this week. Resistance remains just above last night’s high of 10627 (don’t dismiss potential for a retest of that level as per the short term NZDUSD count). A longer term bearish objective is in the mid 90s.

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06 September 2011 15:02 GMT

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By Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist 28 September 2011 14:55 GMT I remain of the persuasion that the AUDUSD is headed lower. In fact, the rally from 9620 fits as a 4th wave within the decline from 10764. Bearish objectives are the November 2010 low at 9534 and the 2009-2010 double top at 9400. This larger bearish count is valid against 10180. Interim support comes in at 9775-9800.

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28 September 2011 14:55 GMT

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Despite the rally from 9620, the 4th wave interpretation remains favored. Moves since the low (9620) are in 3 waves (see NZDUSD-same pattern), which is suggestive of a triangle pattern or flat. In the case of a triangle, the recent range would tighten before price breaks to a new low. Bearish objectives remain the November 2010 low at 9534 and the 2009-2010 double top at 9400. This larger bearish count is valid against 10180. Interim support comes in at 9775-9800.

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By Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist 14 September 2011 15:56 GMT “The USDJPY daily Bollinger bands are extremely tight, which warns of a breakout. When the bands are this tight, the initial breakout is often of the false variety. In this case, the break above the second standard deviation band qualifies as the false breakout. With price reversing from the recent high, respect the potential for a downside break.” The rally from the low is corrective and price has broken its short term trendline support. Look lower. 7630/40 is short term support although I do favor a drop to a new record.

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14 September 2011 15:56 GMT

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By Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist 12 October 2011 15:42 GMT The AUDUSD made a weekly key reversal last week. This was the first bullish reversal since May 2010! Unfortunately, the uninterrupted nature of the rally has afforded very small windows to get long without taking on increased risk. In any case, price has reached former supports just below 10200 and the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 10764 is at 10238. The area surrounding 10100 and parity are supports. I think the best bet is to expect a reaction from the current level (10200ish) lower into mentioned supports before additional strength towards 10400. 9865 (last night’s low) will serve as the pivot.

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12 October 2011 15:42 GMT

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The USDCAD turn higher leaves the USDCAD decline from 10007 in 3 waves (with triangle wave b) so the next bull leg may be underway. An objective is the 100% extension of the rally from 9409, at 10325. This level is close to a pivot high from October 2010 at 10373. The impulsive rally from 9724 reinforces my bullish convictions. Additional support is 9815 if needed.

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The EURUSD has dropped to its lowest level since January and still lower prices look likely near term. Consolidation since Thursday may be taking the form of a triangle. In fact, completion of a corrective pattern and subsequent drop to a new low would compose 5 waves lower from 13935. A downside level to keep in mind is the mid January pivot at 13243. Strategically, I like shorting any bounces within the consolidation with a stop above 13566 and objective in the mid 13200s. We should then have an opportunity to play an early October reversal.

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I wrote Friday that “the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) has broken the internal wave 3 channel and focus is now on the more important Elliott channel that should help us identify the end of wave 4. The channel intersects 9834 early next week.” After slipping just below 9834 yesterday, price has bounced slightly. The reward/risk balance favors longs here.

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I wrote Friday that “if an impulse is underway from 10763, then this level (10481) should not be reached. The objective is below this week’s low – the 8/11 pivot low at 10113 is of interest.” The entire Thursday-Friday advance has been retraced and focus is on the mentioned 8/11 low. Keep in mind that with 5 waves possibly nearing completion from 10763, the probability increases with each tick lower that a corrective advance will get underway towards 10400.

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By Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist 21 September 2011 16:06 GMT AUDUSD expectations over the next several days are for a correction of the decline from 10763 to unfold. Resistance is 10390 and 10450-10525 (50%-61.8% Fibonacci). However, the larger trend is down towards the August low at 9928. I prefer playing the downside for a bearish extension as long as price is below 10312.

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21 September 2011 16:06 GMT

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By Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist 05 October 2011 15:15 GMT The AUDUSD has reversed from the long cited bearish target of 9400 and the channel that defines the trend from the July top. To review, 9400 is the 2009-2010 double top (2009 was slightly above 9400 and 2010 was slightly below). Short term structure is constructive, with the rally from the low unfolding in 5 waves. I favor buying dips. 9485-9500 is support. 9700/75 is short term resistance.

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05 October 2011 15:15 GMT

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An AUDUSD high may be in place as price has declined beneath the short term Elliott channel. More importantly, the decline from 10764 is impulsive (5 waves). Near term resistance is 10625. The implications from the above count are bearish as the next AUDUSD bear leg would result in a break below 9928.

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By Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist 16 September 2011 15:39 GMT I wrote this week that “near term weakness may extend to the August pivot at 10110 but there is now the possibility of consolidation in wave iv back into 10300-10400. Such a rally would present the next bearish opportunity.” Resistance has been hit near 10400, which is defined by the 200 day average and Tuesday’s high. The key level for bears is 10481. If an impulse is underway from 10763, then this level should not be reached. The objective is below this week’s low – the 8/11 pivot low at 10113 is of interest.

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16 September 2011 15:39 GMT

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The AUDUSD has reversed from the long cited bearish target of 9400 and the channel that defines the trend from the July top. To review, 9400 is the 2009-2010 double top (2009 was slightly above 9400 and 2010 was slightly below). Short term structure is constructive, with the rally from the low unfolding in 5 waves. A correction of this rally is favored with 9600 and 9540 as supports. Upside levels of interest are 9810, 9840, and 9880.

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